BJP heading for shock defeat in Gujarat: Yogendra Yadav

ONI Bureau: Leading Psephologist and National President of Swaraj Abhiyan, Yogendra Yada, who had predicted heavy win for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, has created a big buzz in the political circle today by predicting a shock defeat for the saffron party in Gujarat.

Yogendra Yadav has given three scenario, but none favours BJP against the Congress. He has given three scenarios – ‘Possible’, ‘Likely’ and ‘Can’t be Ruled Out’.

‘Possible’ gives Congress slight edge over the BJP, but a simple majority. ‘Likely’ gives comfortable majority to the Congress, while ‘Can’t be Ruled Out’ predicts even bigger defeat for the saffron party.

Scenario 1: Possible
BJP 43% votes, 86 seats
INC 43% votes, 92 seats

Scenario 2: Likely

BJP 41% votes, 65 seats
INC 45% votes, 113 seats

Scenario 3: Can’t be ruled out

Even bigger defeat for the BJP.

According to Yogendra Yadav, BJP is heading for a near rout in rural areas, where the party fared bad even in 2012 polls. He says the party is doing well in Cities, not losing much; but the party is losing almost half of the seats in Semi-Urban areas and facing a rout in rural belt.

My projections for Gujarat

Scenario1: Possible
BJP 43% votes, 86 seats
INC 43% votes, 92 seats

Scenario 2: Likely
BJP 41% votes, 65 seats
INC 45% votes, 113 seats

Scenario 3: Can't be ruled out
Even bigger defeat for the BJP pic.twitter.com/5VIvk8EiyV

— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) December 13, 2017

There are three elections in Gujarat:
City (39 seats): BJP on a solid wicket, can't lose more than 10
Semi-Urban (45 seats): BJP on the edge of a cliff, holds 36, can lose half of these
Rural (98 seats): Steady downhill for BJP, trailed here in 2012, now faces a rout https://t.co/vynIjD4OTU

— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) December 13, 2017